Severe storms target Eastern Iowa tonight and Tuesday afternoon (2024)

By Jan Ryherd

One more nice one today

Quiet and warm weather continues today with plentiful sunshine overhead. Highs climb to the 70s and low 80s this afternoon under a sunny sky. While a few degrees short of yesterday’s near-record temperatures, it will still feel plenty warm.

Winds will be a bit of a factor today, with breezy conditions during the daytime hours. Gusts increase later this evening into tonight, likely into the 20 to 30 mph range overnight as a strengthening area of low pressure draws closer to eastern Iowa.

Your First Alert: Severe storms possible tonight and Tuesday

As that storm system moves closer, and a warm front begins to move into the state, some isolated to scattered storms could develop after Midnight tonight, spreading to the northeast across the area through the morning commute on Tuesday. This initial round is on the leading edge of a warm and, more importantly, more moist air mass that will be moving in ahead of the low center.

This initial round of activity should primarily be standard thunderstorms, with heavier downpours at times and frequent lightning. There is a slim chance that a storm or two could turn strong to severe, with large hail the primary threat. The chance of this in the morning is low, but not zero, so stay weather-aware as you’re getting ready for the day tomorrow.

There may be a bit of a lull in activity by mid-morning on Tuesday, but additional waves of thunderstorms are likely by late Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. The first push of widespread rain and thunderstorms will affect the area around lunchtime, with a short gap between this area and a potential arc of thunderstorms that arrives later in the afternoon to the evening. All of this activity will be spreading from the southwest to the northeast, and likely at a quick pace.

Both of these areas of showers and storms could turn strong to severe. The greatest risk of severe storms will generally be found along and south of a warm front that will likely split the viewing area from north to south, hanging out somewhere near the U.S. Highway 30 corridor by the afternoon. That being said, there still is a chance for severe storms north of that front, extended across nearly the entire viewing area.

Severe storms target Eastern Iowa tonight and Tuesday afternoon (1)

It appears that the biggest threats with this storm system will be large, damaging hail (some hailstones could get to 2″ in diameter or larger) and tornadoes (a couple could turn strong). Damaging winds will also be possible. The highest risk for these individual threats follows the same theme, being highs for areas along and south of a warm front as the storm system moves through.

Severe storms target Eastern Iowa tonight and Tuesday afternoon (2)

Take time now to prepare

It is important to have multiple, reliable ways to get severe weather information. Don’t rely on just one and especially do not rely on outdoor warning sirens alone. They are not designed to be heard indoors and should not be your first line of defense when it comes to severe weather. Consider getting a NOAA weather radio or check that your existing one is working properly and has new batteries. Make sure that wireless emergency alerts are turned on in your smartphone settings. Download the First Alert Weather App and check that your notifications and “follow me” feature are turned on or sign up for WeatherCall to get a personal call from us when severe weather strikes as an extra layer of protection.

Non-severe rain showers linger

As this storm system slowly moves through the region, additional chances for showers and a storm or two remain on Tuesday night into parts of Wednesday. This activity will likely be more widely scattered than during the day on Tuesday. Temperatures slip into the low to mid 50s on Tuesday night, warming toward the upper 50s to mid 60s by the afternoon.

A secondary storm system moves through on Thursday, giving us another shot at some showers. This activity should be fairly light overall, but could add more to our already decent rainfall totals expected for the week. Many of us will receive at least an inch of rain between now and Thursday, with some spots getting 2 inches or more. As it appears now, the best chance for the highest totals is likely right on top of our worst drought areas, hopefully providing some relief.

Reversing course to cooler temperatures

The biggest effect of this second storm system could be the change in temperatures. Highs will slip back below normal on Thursday and stay there through the weekend. Lows will be generally in the low to mid 30s, potentially causing some frost, and highs in the low to mid 50s at best. Some breezy conditions accompany these chillier temperatures, too, which will just enhance them a little bit.

A silver lining to this change will be the quiet weather that appears likely at this point. While highs will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler this coming weekend compared to the very warm one we just experienced, partly cloudy skies and dry weather come with it. Considering the calender, it should still be a decent stretch of days.

A modest warming trend appears possible early next week, pushing highs back into the 60s.